I’m reading Matt Mower‘s and Don Park’s response to Larry Lessig on the OSAF/Future of Software topic. The apocalyptic question has been raised. Will the free software movement eventually kill off all commercial mass market software? My guess is no, but I don’t have an argument why. Here are a few trends:
- Free software has a lot of trouble dealing with Intellectual Property
- Examples
- RedHat and MP3 patents
- DVD encryption
- Software Patents?
- Mitigating factors:
- Popularize a free clone
- Easier to ignore IP altogether
- Examples
- Free software hasn’t had enough success at building complex pieces of software (and next to no success at complex software that isn’t cloned from elsewhere)
- Examples:
- desktop still isn’t done right
- Exchange killer?
- Mitigating Factors:
- Can do it with enough time and no moving target (office file formats/desktop)
- Examples:
- Microsoft and other commercial software companies have not adequately made the desktop an attractive place to write software for
- Examples
- Web site interfaces instead of rich client interfaces
- Viruses, Worms, security issues
- Nats
- Mitigating Factors:
- Company Line: Soap and .Net Frameworks
- Being Offline
- extensibility, privacy, nickled and dimed to death
- Examples
Hmm… My perspective skew is showing especially in the last one. I should add “Microsoft sucking all the oxygen from the market” based on the different angry blogs I’ve read, but it’s never felt creditable to me.